Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.016085 0.018228 0.020555 0.023269 0.026349 0.029738 0.033752
2025-06-15 0.012922 0.015921 0.019462 0.023954 0.029507 0.036156 0.044739
2025-06-22 0.010557 0.013765 0.017773 0.023155 0.030208 0.039157 0.051409
2025-06-29 0.009079 0.012398 0.016741 0.022851 0.031251 0.042427 0.058492
2025-07-06 0.007789 0.011068 0.015532 0.022072 0.031441 0.044432 0.063908
2025-07-13 0.007246 0.010674 0.015511 0.022861 0.033794 0.049530 0.074044
2025-07-20 0.006731 0.010245 0.015370 0.023420 0.035811 0.054267 0.084049
2025-07-27 0.006332 0.009934 0.015351 0.024126 0.038069 0.059510 0.095259
2025-08-03 0.005784 0.009332 0.014819 0.023967 0.038938 0.062649 0.103407
2025-08-10 0.005339 0.008845 0.014412 0.023948 0.039995 0.066131 0.112373
2025-08-17 0.004867 0.008266 0.013800 0.023523 0.040320 0.068409 0.119479
2025-08-24 0.004583 0.007971 0.013623 0.023799 0.041831 0.072763 0.130507
2025-08-31 0.004232 0.007539 0.013188 0.023611 0.042555 0.075887 0.139776
2025-09-07 0.004054 0.007393 0.013236 0.024280 0.044863 0.082006 0.155092
2025-09-14 0.003669 0.006839 0.012508 0.023471 0.044385 0.083025 0.160940
2025-09-21 0.003396 0.006466 0.012076 0.023163 0.044802 0.085706 0.170176
2025-09-28 0.003086 0.005996 0.011422 0.022373 0.044214 0.086412 0.175560
2025-10-05 0.003006 0.005960 0.011583 0.023173 0.046803 0.093478 0.194387
2025-10-12 0.002902 0.005868 0.011626 0.023740 0.048966 0.099871 0.212409
2025-10-19 0.002821 0.005814 0.011740 0.024456 0.051489 0.107195 0.233071
2025-10-26 0.002652 0.005567 0.011443 0.024294 0.052157 0.110725 0.245849
2025-11-02 0.002511 0.005366 0.011224 0.024275 0.053122 0.114951 0.260538
2025-11-09 0.002342 0.005091 0.010830 0.023844 0.053147 0.117144 0.270828